The new media of TV and radio are consumed differently than written media. We are inclined to believe what people say simply by virtue of the conviction we hear in their voice. Polemicists on extreme parts of the political spectrum have long understood this but now we are in an era where computers can look at data objectively and report, without bias, the accuracy of someone’s predictions.
In the political world we should post a record of previous prognostications on a split screen so the audience can see their past record. In the world of markets we should see the track record of the analyst or portfolio manager whose opinion is being solicited on (say) CNBC.
Everyone has an opinion. Many people can sound convincing as though they have never been wrong or they have special secret information that gives them an “edge”. Fine- so let’s see your record while we listen.
Would the audience for Cramer be as big if everyone saw his record or previous opinions while he gave you new ones?