Donald Trump entered the political realm as a self-proclaimed pragmatist with no perverted loyalties, free from the corruption of Washington. He sold us on the idea that as a businessman he would get things done. He then chose various issues somewhat at random based on (presumably) populist outcry – the chanting of crowds. There were so many contradictions and absurdities that we could never trust his sincerity or commitment to any of his promises.
Now that he is in office we find that many of his ideas – a Mexican wall, punishing trade cheaters like China, and healthcare for all (but not Obamacare) are falling by the wayside. Since Trump is not a politician and not (really) a committed party member he can take or leave various policies as it suits him but that causes a natural problem. Who are his true-blue followers that will stick with him through thick and thin? His voters were with him for what he was handing out. Some media members may stay loyal (Sean Hannity) because he’s good for ratings but everyone else is now figuring out that he will betray you – eventually. The wall will never happen and your healthcare may be taken away – still OK? How about a budget with no improvement in the deficit and a giant increase in the defense department budget? Did you really expect to see new trade deals and manufacturing jobs?
After Trump abandons all of these promises and gets buried in Twitter scandals, his voters will melt away like an iceberg in Jamaica. Populists will have to go back to Bernie and Repubs will fall back on Paul Ryan or maybe Mike Pence. Trump will find himself naked and afraid – friendless and mocked. Steve Bannon may cling to power for as long as he can but a better test will be what all the (cabinet) oligarchs and generals will do when they see that their reputations are getting destroyed. So far Trump seems to think that following the extreme right wing of the Republican Party and abandoning his populist crowds will be safer. It won’t be.
Donald Trump is a political interloper who succeeded by promising everything and lying when asked to reconcile those promises. He doesn’t have the backing of a green party, the socialists, or the libertarians. He is an atheist fighting for the religious right on abortion and LGBT issues. He seems to like single payer healthcare but is (sort of) supporting Paul Ryan’s plan to take away coverage for 24 mm people. His only hope to succeed is to stick to his brand of populism. That means more, not less healthcare. It means new trade deals and new high-paying manufacturing jobs. It means big cutbacks in immigration. If he gets none of this done and only delivers Ryan-style tax cuts for the highest earners or Pence-style destruction of Planned Parenthood then 2018 could be a mess for the Repubs, to say nothing of 2020.
There is one way I get this all wrong: We find out that the Republican party is a rotting corpse full of racists and moronic Ayn Rand followers. They have no coherent vision of the country or of social and economic policy. Since they have no plan they’ll stick with Mr. Crazy in the White House because that’s all they’ve got. By their tortured standards, he is the most electable in their party so they use him to pass whatever laws they can think of for two years – until the voters come back with a new verdict.