The Rabid Independent, Nonpartisan solutions, independent policy ideas

Restraint vs. Edginess

I understand that an elite athlete looks to gain any advantage they can by getting very hyped up during a game. They talk trash to an opponent or yell at themselves after an unforced error.  They scream with enthusiasm after a massive dunk or spectacular touchdown catch. We often celebrate with them.

After the game is over, during a break or even during the game the athlete has to manage his edginess. If he doesn’t he could get penalized for dirty play, excessive celebration, profanity towards the crowd, or smashing his racquet to bits. Muhammed Ali never stopped his antics. Outside the ring, he was as insulting as Donald Trump. It was good for ratings just like it is for Trump but is that really how we like our athletes (or politicians)? Do you like Richard Sherman’s arrogance, Nick Kyrgios’ profanity, Dez Bryant’s self-promotion, or DeMarcus Cousins court antics?

If an athlete is at the top of their sport we expect even more. LeBron James doesn’t act like a petulant child off the court. He doesn’t spend his time anonymously tweeting insults to other players or twitter trolls. He feels some responsibility for the reputation of his sport, as does Roger Federer, Tom Brady, and Sydney Crosby.

Which brings us to Serena Williams.  In a US Open final, I expect a lot, decorum wise, from the greatest female player of all time. I expect her to be the example, not the 20-year-old she’s playing against. I don’t care about whataboutisms like “men do it”. Did you see Raphael Nadal or Roger Federer ever act like that in a major tournament? Is John McEnroe who you really want to be compared to? No excuses. Step away from stupid discrimination claims and umpire unfairness.

Act like your sister.

Trumpism is Not Spreading.

The first reason why this is not true is simply because there is no such thing as Trumpism. There is no plan, no ideology, A man without knowledge of anything cannot be given credit for a strategy or a phenomenon. The Poles and Hungarians might prefer autocracy. Australians and Italians might want to reduce immigration. None of the people in these countries are voting for these changes because they are watching Trump on TV.

The entire first world suffers from three common problems:

  • The maldistribution of income,
  • Anemic growth of lower and middle incomes.
  • Poor participation rates and/or high youth unemployment.

Italy’s economy over the last 20 years has not grown at all! The Spanish youth unemployment rate is 33.8%. 29% of 15-year-olds in the UK come from new immigrant families and one out of three babies are born to foreign-born residents (2/3 in the city of London). Australia is in the middle of the longest period of low wage growth since its last recession in the early 1990s.

There are only two possible reasons for this global mess – automation and China. Automation reduces worker demand and outsourcing to China sets a global price for labor. It tells every manager – 1st world workers are not worth any more than Chinese peasants. In the midst of this, liberal politicians decided to do the right thing and let in foreign immigrants.  America let in an ocean of Hispanic people. Europe let in Muslims. When you’re feeling economically oppressed you’re not going to be generous to new arrivals unless they look and sound exactly like you.

Our common global parasite ensures a common 1st world condition. How could politicians become so out of touch with basic human psychology? We’ve decided to label this – populism, as though it’s a new socio-economic phenomenon.  Isn’t it logical to want to curtail immigration when wages are stagnating and the foreign-born population is at a 70 year high? None of this is local or national – it’s global. This isn’t about white supremacy – it’s about supply and demand.

This should be a battle between economists and open border liberals but the economists are hiding in the bushes. Maybe they’re outnumbered by the efficiency lovers who can never get enough cheap labor. Their absence has been filled in by the likes of Steve Bannon, Viktor Orban, and Jimmie Akesson. These are not necessarily nice guys but stupid open border fanatics who have never taken a course in economics have facilitated their rise. If we expect economically oppressed people to open their hearts to economically oppressed foreigners we are asking way too much. I doubt they would be open to a new flood of Canadians fleeing a natural disaster. We are too quick to judge our grandparents who closed our borders during the depression.

They were bad humanitarians but good (labor) economists.

Are Marxists responsible for Stalin’s genocide?

This may sound a little obscure but it needs to be addressed since it keeps coming up. As political rhetoric gets more heated it has become popular to say that extreme right-wing thinking will lead to another holocaust. Jordan Peterson is desperately claiming that naive millennial Marxists must take responsibility for all of Stalin’s and Mao’s crimes. This confuses me:

  1. Leftists detest income inequality. They may even propose a swing toward a Centrally Planned Economy (Marxism) as a solution. It can be shown that this is a terrible idea. It cannot be said though that a democracy run by industrial workers (“All Power to the Soviets”) has anything to do with starving farmers in Ukraine or working millions to death in Siberian Gulags. Mao starved his people in order to hoard grain to sell to Russia to pay for nuclear bombs. Where is that in Das Capital?
  2. Fascism is a tough thing to define but it isn’t necessarily the logical extension of extreme conservative thinking. Even if it were we have a variety of 20th-century fascist examples – Spain and Italy. They never engaged in genocide.  Neither deported their Jewish populations to Polish death camps.  Mussolini and Franco were not nice to their enemies but as dictators, we kind of figured they wouldn’t be. The problem is that Hume and Burke never said dictators were the way to go. What has any of this got to do with conservatism?
  3. Analogously we often hear religious people say that Stalin’s and Hitler’s atheism drove them to murder. I guess there’s a sort of Guidebook for Nonbelievers that says they have no beliefs except that murder is OK. In the name of believing in nothing, they condemn their citizenry to death(?)… or if they had followed Jesus they would be pacificists like Gandhi. Not even close.

Find me one conservative thinker who is in favor of ethnic cleansing. Then find me a Marxist who wants to set up a new government and murder all the capitalists. Can we stop this nonsense of using 20th-century similes when they make no sense? We need to take the good parts from both sides – that’s impossible if we associate either ideology with genocide. Let’s just agree that totalitarianism is a bad idea and leave it there.

If Trump starts to act like a dictator or seems to be unwilling to leave the oval office then bring on the 20th-century parallels!

Should we all be optimists or pessimists?

Steven Pinker, a Harvard psychologist and author of Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progresszooms back and examines the “big picture of human progress” since the late 18th century, right around the time the Enlightenment Age kicked off. Pinker highlights the data on education, literacy, wealth, and longevity to make the broader case that life, is good and getting better.  He’s sort of the anti-Lester Thurow (circa 1983).

Global economic prosperity proves his thesis that science and reason have saved the day, but what if that prosperity is an illusion?

Pinker suffers from what I’ll call the jealous neighbor fallacy.  You are living on a street where all the houses are of similar value and design. Everyone has 1.5 children and a minivan. One day you notice your neighbor (Joe Blow) has a new Mercedes S550. You finally decide to confront him. You ask whether he got a new job or a huge raise. He tells you that nothing has changed, he simply leased the car with no money down. The dealer seemed more than happy to make the deal.

Then it gets worse – your other neighbor gets a new Tesla S, again all financed through the dealer. From that point on your wife and you wince a little as both your neighbors cruise around in high-class cars so everyone can see them. You feel like the poor people on the block. One day you go out to pick up your paper from the street and Steven Pinker is outside congratulating Joe on his financial good fortune.

The error that Thurow made was to never imagine we would borrow our way to faster growth. Ronald Reagan got us going and George Bush Jr. took it to a new level. Pinker doesn’t pay attention to the balance sheet – all he sees are the near-term benefits.

These numbers are extraordinary. This debt has allowed us to both stimulate our local economy but also those of our trading partners. They lend to us and we voraciously buy all their crud. We have lifted all boats which is why Pinker’s global averages look so marvelous. But that’s not all. Other countries have followed our lead just like neighbors copy neighbors when it comes to borrowing to buy new cars. Here’s what China has done:

Every time you hear Larry Kudlow brag about GDP growth you must balance it against the giant annual deficits we are currently running – 10 years after a recession, precisely when we should be running huge surpluses. Do we feel richer? Yes. Crime is lower, longevity is rising (sort of) and global poverty has fallen (mainly due to Chinese growth). If this were being achieved by virtue of rising productivity then we truly would have much to celebrate. (It’s not)

Unfortunately, if we look into the future using Pinker’s time frame this doesn’t end well.

Why do I feel so smart?

There is a name for the syndrome that many not-very-smart people suffer from: The Dunning-Kruger Effect (DKE). It’s easy to understand. People of limited intelligence don’t really know how much smart people know so they simply presume they are clever(er). This is how people with no understanding of how carbon dioxide absorbs or traps heat from the sun can be so sure that global warming is a hoax. They refuse to accept the opinions of experts because to do so is to lose agency. Besides, all those academics are liberals anyway. Ah – to be blissfully ignorant.

Today we have moved to the second level of DKE. We are led by a man and his cult members who suffer from DKE, not just a little, but with regard to every political and economic issue of the day. I may not understand many issues in as much detail as I should and I have never worked in government, but I am utterly certain that I am smarter than Donald Trump, his entire cabinet and every politician who comes out defending him. Need I produce a list of his stupid remarks?… OK, maybe just a few:

  • After arriving in Israel from Saudi Arabia, Trump told his hosts, “We just got back from the Middle East.”
  • Trump said that Frederick Douglass, who died in 1895, was “an example of somebody who’s done an amazing job and is being recognized more and more.”
  • He claimed that Andrew Jackson, who died 16 years before the Civil War, “was really angry that he saw what was happening in regard to the Civil War.”
  • Trump picked a fight on Twitter with Qatar, apparently not knowing that this small, oil-rich emirate is host to a major U.S. air base that is of vital importance in the air war against the Islamic State.
  • Donald Trump said climate change is a hoax invented by the Chinese.

I could go on and on. His defenders seem even worse somehow. How does a Republican congressman claim to be lucid while defending such an idiot? How can a good economist defend Trump’s trade policy when it has no coherence? Who thinks it’s a good idea to invade or nuke Iran if they make one more threatening remark?

Every day my own feelings of superiority are enhanced by his latest tweet. I have become a smarter man due to DTE– the Donald Trump Effect. A person with debilitating DKE has pushed up my intellectual confidence so much that I am absolutely ready to destroy all comers (as YouTube and Twitter call it). It’s as though someone just handed me a PHD in everything and I never needed to take a single course. All I have to do is listen to the news each morning and I am bursting with confidence in my intelligence…

Go on – ask me anything.

 

 

Does John Roberts care about the arc of history?

Let’s assume for a second that the head of the Supreme Court cares about his historical reputation. Clarence Thomas and Sonia Sotomayor don’t have that sort of pressure. They just vote their conscience and sleep like babies but eras in the court are described by using the chief justice’s name. Each one becomes most famous for it’s most significant decisions and the historical judgment falls most heavily on the chief – as if his name is on the stamp, even if he voted against the rest of his colleagues.

A  minister (Theodore Parker) in the 19th century once said:” The arc of the (moral) universe … bends towards justice.” – which I think means that the world gradually becomes a more liberal place where human rights gain favor and religious orthodoxy declines. If you were a justice on the court that voted in favor of returning runaway or freed slaves to the Confederacy (The Dread Scott case) then history has judged you harshly. If you voted against civil rights or voting rights or access for all to education then history has raked you over the coals. In fact, it’s rather hard to think of a conservative decision that has been judged as wise and good for the country.

You might point at the court’s shutting down the New Deal as a Presidential overreach: The Supreme Court consistently rejected laws giving the federal government authority to regulate industrial or agricultural production—FDR’s efforts to protect workers, raise employment, and lift farm incomes. FDR had won huge majorities in 1932 and ’34 and the people were all behind the New Deal programs. If FDR hadn’t tried to stack the court in retaliation this would have gone down as just another decision(s) by the court to favor big business, the donor class or retrograde ethical positions. Desperate times demanded desperate measures.

The Supreme Court has upheld segregation, supported the internment of Japanese Americans, found in favor of forced sterilization of people with disabilities, upheld sodomy statutes, told states they cannot ban child labor, stopped the recounting of votes in Florida in 2000, protected Exxon from punitive damages in the crash of the Valdez, and of course – found that corporations deserve the same protections as people when it comes to political (free) speech.  If we just singled out the voting record of the conservative justices we would be appalled by their votes. Conservatives, in particular, are often the most behind the times when it comes to individual freedoms and equal rights.

The United States is becoming unequivocally more secular and more open-minded towards minorities and LGBT people. This is not new – this the arc of history and if the Roberts court chooses to go crazy conservative with Gorsuch, Thomas and now Kavanaugh leading the way, they’ll find that history will judge them as backward dupes of the aged and the rich. Is that how Roberts wants to be known? Is he willing to hear it said that “the Roberts Court blew up the right to an abortion”? Is he happy that his court has chosen to empower corporations to the detriment of citizens and that it has done nothing to fix the national gerrymandering crisis? After Kavanaugh gets approved, we must hope that Roberts has some historical perspective and takes on the job of the adult in the room.

It’s his reputation at stake.

Irritating Sports Commentary

Two thoughts here on entirely different issues:

Super Teams

Every sport loves the drama of their playoffs but if they focus too much on them, the regular season becomes meaningless. The only way to retain interest in both is to have a relatively short regular season and team parity. The ever upward shifting team salary cap in the NBA has allowed teams to pay everyone almost everything they ask for. The Lakers already have a team yet seem to have more than enough money (and cap room) to add both Kawhi Leonard and LeBron James? Thus we have entered into the era of the super-team. Commentators seem to cheer for this because they say they like to see two or three great teams battle it out at the end of the season. So where does that leave the average fan in New York or _______ (fill in almost every city in the country)? We are not entertained. It’s not just that the other teams have poor or mediocre records, it’s that they are providing a mediocre product. Who cares if they get into the playoffs in the 7th position in the east? Even when the great Phoenix Suns teams of the 2000’s failed to win a championship, everyone wanted to watch. So it was with the Ewing Knicks of the 90’s.

Sports commentators (and LeBron) like to say – if we don’t like super-teams then “beat them”. But as a fan I have no power over this. We count on the league to maintain parity or else the regular season becomes a waste of time. Attendance should collapse. Every fan is well aware of the difference between his sad team and the GS Warriors. Watching a regular season game is like rubbing salt in the wound. Fix the cap and fans, please stop going to games.

Bad Scoring Systems

As I’ve written before, a superior scoring system most exposes the skill difference between two teams or players. In golf the difference between the 2 top players at a tournament is often 1 stroke. It is easy for a poorly ranked player to have a great weekend and win a major. Then we must listen to the postmortem commentary about how well he played when, in the end, it came down to a lucky bounce off a sprinkler head on the 7th fairway in the 2nd round.

Germany was eliminated from the world cup this week by South Korea in spite of the fact that they controlled the ball around  77% of the time. A deflected ball can be the difference that eliminates a great team and saves a terrible one. Then we get to listen to commentators try to justify the outcome. They are forced to inanely argue that Germany was no good and deserved to lose. Weren’t those South Koreans great? NO!

This game is ruined by its scoring system and everyone knows it. That’s why there is such jubilation after each goal. It’s as though the crowd can’t believe the ball went in the net (neither can I). We can fix this by:

  1. Eliminating the offside rule.
  2. Give points for ball control.
  3. Give points for shots on or near the goal.

Otherwise we sit around waiting for “set pieces”. All the interim worthless passing and masses of crowded men in the center of the field guarantees a stalemate. They must incentivise ball control and offensive effort and disincentivise clock killing. At the next stage we will get to see teams advance by virtue of countless post-game penalty shots after a tie. That’s a solution? Why don’t they just remove half the players during overtime? That’s sort of what hockey did and it became the best part of the game!

No wonder Americans don’t watch.

They can’t believe their team scored.

The Cultists Take Over

Cognitive dissonance is aggravating. We all cling to our beliefs like sacred possessions. To change an opinion is to lose a piece of oneself. If we start with “I love Trump” then we’ll do almost anything to sustain and defend our love. Communists were told that Nazism was their enemy in the 30’s so they sided with the allies against Hitler’s rise. Then they were told that Hitler was a great guy (after the signing of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact) . After Hitler invaded the Soviet Union in 1941 communists had to pivot yet again. Did any of this hurt Stalin’s popularity or that of communism in general – not really.

Trump hates Kim Jong Un. Trump loves Kim Jong Un. No problem. In fact a cultist will get angry at your attack of all this flip flopping and dig in even more. Kim Philby never wavered, why would our alt-right? Along the way a party will veer away from being political to being all about the great leader. It happened in China (under Mao), in Stalin’s Russia, in Mussolini’s Italy’s,  and in Chavez’ Venezuela.

The one rule you cannot break in a  cult is – never doubt the leader. If you disagree with him then you will be thrown out (“primaried”) . When you make your case on ideological grounds the cultists (now called the base) will not hear you, They’ll just get really really angry. Eventually this works to improve the popularity of the leader as the party purges non-believers. The more stupid or outrageous the actions of Trump, the more the cultists dig in so his popularity rises and the party becomes “purified”.

We know how this ends – in total failure. Stalin is denounced, Mussolini is hanged, Venezuela goes bankrupt and there is mass emigration. There is usually a very ugly period when the cultist know they’re going down and they ty to take down the others with them. Hitler youth often stayed in the rear to kill retreating soldiers.

Americans were trained to believe in a process (democracy), a set of rules (the constitution) and a system (capitalism) so it was thought that cultism was not something we would or could succumb to. Our flood of immigrants (the highest number of foreign born people since 1920) has changed the dynamic. Ethnocentrism is a powerful ugly force. It must be attacked explicitly but also implicitly – by reducing immigration to allow for integration and economic digestion.

In the meantime we can only hope that the radicalism of the Trump fanatics irritates the middle and the “old” Republicans sufficiently to ruin him in November.

What does the past tell about Vichy-Republicans

Every Republican primary is telling us that the party now belongs to Donald Trump. Mark Sanford is the latest casualty that explains why only retiring congressmen are denouncing the liar in chief. This is a common story in history. When a strongman takes over a party or a country, other politicians must fall in line to survive. Many do so willingly and with fervor. Many do so for economic benefit and some – when it is entirely unnecessary.

After the strongman has been discredited or thrown out of office the sympathizers must rewrite their biography. They create a narrative where they had no choice and were just following orders. If they can, they erase the records – something the internet won’t allow any more. Francois Mitterand’s participation in the Vichy government was (kept) murky until the mid- 90’s when he was retired. It was common knowledge that many ex-Nazis were allowed back into the government after the war. The US intelligence services recruited war criminals and many businesses that had prospered during Naziism carried on shamelessly after the war (Chanel, L’Oreal, Hugo Boss, Volkswagon/Porsche).

In five years time Trump will be gone and (I hope) so will be his doctrine of alternate truths, spin, and stupidity. The whole mess will look even worse in the rearview mirror than it does in the present. Yes, I’m assuming we will get a counter-reaction. The un-Trump will force those collaborators to act like former Quisling cabinet members. They will spin like Maurice (I had no choice) Papon. We will be told by Mitch McConnell that he had no choice or couldn’t have done anything anyway. Perhaps Devin Nunes will evaporate without repentance (like Oswald Mosely) but long-serving Senators and new candidates will need to pivot to be re-elected. They will selectively recall their un-Trump moments.

How does history judge loyalty as an excuse? 

History tells us that allegiance to a repugnant narcissist/ideologue is not easily forgiven. Usually, these collaborators must spend some time in the wilderness before their resurrection. Memories fade.  Paul Ryan bankrupted the state and accommodated the Trump agenda. He can see there will be fallout. Like a Nazi who saw that Germany was losing the war, it’s best to get out early, deny your complicity and stage a comeback later. If you wait long enough and hire a good publicist you might become a celebrity like Albert Speer. If possible align yourself with a new cause or a clean politician.

The Republican ticket for 2024 – Paul Ryan/Jeff Flake

How to Win a Trade War

I believe we have been in a trade war with China for 20 years. They have been fighting every day and gaining ground. We have been acting like Stalin at the beginning of Operation Barbarossa – mired in disbelief and incompetence. It was so much easier to think China was just giving us what we wanted (cheap consumer goods) without any cost to our own economy or security.

Thanks to Trump many more Americans and even economists are recognizing that we have been taken for a ride. There are confessionals everywhere; Few who now defend China in light of such public documents as Made in China 2025. This seems to have sent Trump and his team into a sort of frenzy, attacking every country as though it’s China. He even attacked a country that we have a trade surplus with (and there aren’t many of those) – Canada!

Memo to Trump: How to Conduct a Trade War

  1. Set an example by attacking the leader of global trade crime – China. (Let’s give a big shout out to Marco Rubio for this bill.)
  2. Clearly explain why it has been singled out so others know what the new rules are.
  3. Attack transhipping to prevent new tariffs against China from being circumvented.
  4. Pick a favorite country to use as an example of good conduct – one that has a deficit with us ideally and who we can trust under any situation to deliver needed goods in case we have a (military or trade) war. Canada or England will do. Celebrate their fairness.
  5. We must use tariffs and subsidies in case the spinoff effects of higher prices are too costly. Some combination of the two makes sense with steel, solar panels, and LCD screens.
  6. Make sure critical inputs like rare earth metals and pharmaceuticals are stockpiled or brought in only from friendly sources.
  7. Someone call up Peter Navarro and tell him you can’t win a war without allies.

Trump is right about one thing – every country in the world has been targetting debt-loving, consumption-crazy Americans. We have been in love with policies that favor consumers over producers/workers for thirty-five years.  It is a shock to wake up and be told that something you buy or use as an intermediate good in your business may go up in price. For every other country in the world, that’s a normal day. Everyone (except in America) pays extra for something, knowing they do so to grant a higher wage (or social service) to a neighbor. That’s why they accept higher tax rates and/or a VAT.

Surely Americans can see the absurd place this has gotten us – we have a (fake) unemployment rate of 3.8% and wages are barely keeping up with inflation. There are a ton of unfilled jobs out there – at Chinese wage rates! Corporate outsourcers have reset the price on domestic labor. Unless we break with the global trade parasite we shall continue to circle the drain with huge tax shortfalls and an opioid epidemic.  The war has begun and we must all be drafted to pay something for our safety, our sovereignty, and higher wages. We should accumulate allies to fight with us – sing along with me: Oh Canada (… or God Save the Queen).

Let’s not continue to act like Stalin in 1941.

Fair and Unbalanced

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